Newsletter Archive
Every published edition of The Credibility Report, organized by publication month and edition sequence.
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Edition 26: Reinsurance Renewals, Softening Rates, and Robust Insurance Design
Marsh reports global commercial insurance rates down 5% in Q1 2026, April renewals show record reinsurance capital and buyer-favorable property-cat terms, NFIP creates a September flood-insurance cliff, and new research on Bregman-Wasserstein robust insurance design sharpens the model-ambiguity question.
May 2026
Edition 26: Reinsurance Renewals, Softening Rates, and Robust Insurance Design
Marsh reports global commercial insurance rates down 5% in Q1 2026, April renewals show record reinsurance capital and buyer-favorable property-cat terms, NFIP creates a September flood-insurance cliff, and new research on Bregman-Wasserstein robust insurance design sharpens the model-ambiguity question.
Edition 25: Funded Reinsurance, Geopolitical Risk, and Dependence Modelling
EIOPA insurance risk dashboard stability and natural-catastrophe research cooperation, Swiss Re on fragmented insurance markets, natural-catastrophe trend, and resilience gaps, plus research on Cape Cod reserving MSEP, competing risks, cure copulas, heatwave attribution, and tail-dependence diagnostics.
April 2026
Edition 24: Flood, Cat Bonds, and Infrastructure-Led Cyber Risk
Aon flags rising flood and drought risk, Zurich returns to the cat bond market with $150m Turicum Re, Tower Hill upsizes Winston Re to $375m at lower pricing, At-Bay reports ransomware shifting toward VPN and remote-access exploitation, with refined arXiv and journal sections on geography-driven MTPL modelling, ActuBench, biological age, Tweedie exposure treatment, and graph-based categorical embeddings.
Edition 23: Reinsurance Renewals & ILS Market Dynamics
UCITS cat bond funds cross $20bn AUM for the first time, April reinsurance renewals deliver steepest broad price correction in over a decade (down 10–30%), Hannover Re places third cloud risk cat bond, Dallas Fed documents home insurance inflation misalignment, and LASSO-penalized spatial estimation for multivariate Gaussian random fields.
Edition 22: ILS Institutionalizes: $20bn AUM, Cat Bond Innovation, and Spatial LASSO
UCITS cat bond funds cross $20bn AUM for the first time, April reinsurance renewals deliver steepest broad price correction in over a decade (down 10–30%), Hannover Re places third cloud risk cat bond, Dallas Fed documents home insurance inflation misalignment, and LASSO-penalized spatial estimation for multivariate Gaussian random fields.
Edition 21: Rates Fall 15–20%, ILS Assets Recover to $6.5bn
April reinsurance renewals bring deepening property-cat softening (Japan -15 to -20%), ILS assets recover to late-2018 levels (+24% YoY), climate-conditioned ILW strategies materially outperform static models, Palomar launches $375m cat bond.
Edition 20: The Market Correction Deepens
US commercial rates correct to +2.9%, cyber and D&O now price-declining, AI production era arrives (80% in production, 38% generating value), steepest reinsurance price decline in over a decade, Solvency II 2026 review advancing.
Edition 19: Reinsurance Renewals, Cloud Risk Cat Bonds, and Record ILS Capital
April renewals soften further, Hannover Re launches first cloud risk cat bond, Stone Ridge ILS AUM hits $6.5bn, Japan cat rates down 16%, and a structural shift in the cat bond market.
March 2026
Edition 18: April Renewals, Cat Bond Pipeline, and Pandemic Mortality Persistence
April reinsurance renewals in the Middle East shock, record cat bond pipeline, Hiscox earnings, PICC motor strength, and the Long Shadow of Pandemic mortality model.
Edition 17: Climate-First Pricing, GLM Transparency, and the Sovereign Cat Bond Frontier
Flood risk pricing in high-resolution climate models, interpretable GLMs, sovereign cat bonds in Africa and Latin America, and Swiss Re Institute research on 2025 nat cat losses.
Edition 16: AI in Underwriting, Graph Neural Networks, and Wildfire Risk Zones
Generative AI adoption in underwriting, graph neural networks for commercial property, wildfire risk zoning, and IFRS 17 insights from Willis Towers Watson.
February 2026
Edition 15: AI Actuarial Models, Private Credit, and Climate Risk Frontiers
AI-powered actuarial models, private credit risk, and climate risk frontiers.
Edition 14: Deep Learning Reserving, ICN Attention, and the Future of Pricing
Deep learning for reserving, ICN attention networks, and future pricing trends.
Edition 13: TabPFN v4, Temporal Fusion, and Credibility Networks
TabPFN v4, temporal fusion transformer, and credibility networks.
Edition 12: Neural Reserving, Embedding Regularization, and Model Risk
Neural network approaches to reserving, embedding regularization, and model risk.
January 2026
Edition 11: Foundation Models for Insurance, Neural Credit Risk, and Mortality Forecasting
Foundation models for insurance, neural credit risk, and mortality forecasting.
Edition 10: Climate Risk Stress Testing, Wildfire Modeling, and Premium Leakage
Climate risk stress testing, wildfire modeling, and premium leakage.
Edition 9: Synthetic Insurance Data, Neural Networks, and the Future of Actuarial Work
Synthetic insurance data generation, neural networks, and actuarial practice.
Edition 8: AI in Actuarial Science: A Research Roundup
AI applications in actuarial science research.
December 2025
Edition 7: Neural Mortality Models, Distribution Shift, and Catastrophe Bonds
Neural network mortality models, distribution shift, and cat bonds.
Edition 6: Deep Learning in P&C Insurance: Pricing, Reserving, and Beyond
Deep learning applications in P&C insurance pricing and reserving.
Edition 5: The Actuarial Foundation Model: Current Research and Future Directions
Actuarial foundation models, current research and future directions.
November 2025
Edition 4: Large Language Models for Actuarial Work: Opportunities and Challenges
LLMs for actuarial work, opportunities and challenges.
Edition 3: Actuarial AI Roundup: Neural Networks Meet Traditional Actuarial Methods
Neural networks and traditional actuarial methods.
Edition 2: Machine Learning in Insurance: From GLMs to Deep Learning
ML in insurance from GLMs to deep learning.
Edition 1: The Credibility Report Launch
Welcome to The Credibility Report.